Solution
In determining the transaction price, the entity prepares a separate estimate for each element of variable consideration to which the entity will be entitled using the estimation methods described in paragraph 53 of IFRS 15:
a) the entity decides to use the expected value method to estimate the variable consideration associated with the daily penalty or incentive (i.e.$ 2.5 Million, plus or minus $ 1 Lakh per day). This is because it is the method that the entity expects to better predict the amount of consideration to which it will be entitled.
b) the entity decides to use the most likely amount to estimate the variable consideration associated with the incentive bonus. This is because there are only two possible outcomes ($ 15 Lakhs or $ Nil) and it is the method that the entity expects to better predict the amount of consideration to which it will be entitled.